KEY POINTS:
U.S. equity index futures green: Nasdaq 100 up ~0.6%
Euro STOXX 600 index ~flat
Dollar, crude ~flat; gold, bitcoin gain
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield edges up to ~4.15%

On Friday, the yield hit 4.173%, nearly tagging its descending 50-DMA which now resides at 4.174%. The yield has since backed away slightly to around 4.15%.
Meanwhile, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI), which on December 27 plunged to its most oversold reading since the yield’s March 2020 low, signaling great potential for a bounce, has recovered to around 66, and is challenging the 70 overbought threshold.
A failure to muster enough strength to attain a fresh overbought reading may add credence to the view that the recent yield rise is counter trend.

A break back below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the October-December slide at 4.075% and the 200-DMA, now just over 4.06%, should refocus the yield on 3.91%, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the March 2020-October 2023 advance which contained the mid-January dip.
Breaking this support can suggest new lows below the 3.789% late-December trough are likely.
If indeed, on an Elliott Wave basis, a 5-wave advance ended in October of last year, the yield can be in the midst of a choppy protracted pullback which can ultimately, at a minimum, see the yield threaten the wave-4 low at 3.253%.