KEY POINTS:

  • Gold speculators cut net long position for 4th week -CFTC
  • U.S. non-farm payrolls in Jan. rose more than expected
  • Investors await remarks from Fed speakers this week
  • No immediate appetite to drive gold below $2,000/oz -analyst

Gold prices fell on Monday as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields surged after a robust jobs report crushed expectations of near-term interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Spot gold GOLD was down 0.5% at $2,027.80 per ounce by 0745 GMT. U.S. gold futures GOLD fell 0.4% to $2,044.90 per ounce.

Reuters Graphics
Thomson ReutersSpot gold price in USD per oz

“Large speculators and managed funds trimmed long exposure to gold futures for a fourth week … and with Jerome Powell reiterating three rate cuts for the year, it remains debatable as to whether gold can rally from here,” said Matt Simpson, a senior analyst at City Index.

Traders are betting on four quarter-point Fed rate cuts for 2024, down from six last Monday, according to LSEG’s interest rate probability app IRPR.

The odds for a cut in May have also lengthened. Lower interest rates boost non-yielding gold’s appeal by decreasing the opportunity cost of holding bullion.

The dollar index DXY hit an eight-week high, making bullion more expensive for other currency holders, while yields on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes US10Y rose to more than 4%.

Data from the U.S. Labor Department showed on Friday that non-farm payrolls increased by 353,000 jobs in January, almost double the 180,000 forecast by economists polled by Reuters.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week dismissed the idea of lowering interest rates in the spring but voiced confidence that inflation would return to the central bank’s 2% target.

“While gold may struggle to hold on to gain, there appears to be no immediate appetite to drive it below $2,000. So, perhaps gold will remain in a choppy range at elevated levels,” said Simpson.

Investors are awaiting remarks from a host of Fed speakers this week for further clues on rate cuts.

Spot silver XAGUSD1! fell 0.5% to $22.55 per ounce, palladium XPDUSD1! dropped 1% to $936.47, while platinum PL1! rose 0.5% to $894.76.

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