Published: January 2, 2026

Bitcoin could already be two months into a bear market phase, according to analysis from CryptoQuant’s head of research, based on key technical indicators including the one-year moving average.

Key Metrics Turn Bearish

Speaking on the Milk Road show this week, CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno revealed that most metrics used in his bull score index shifted to bearish territory in early November and haven’t yet shown signs of recovery. This proprietary index evaluates market conditions across multiple dimensions, measuring network activity, investor profitability, Bitcoin demand, and liquidity on a scale from 0 to 100.

The critical confirmation signal Moreno points to is Bitcoin’s price falling below its one-year moving average—a technical indicator that tracks the asset’s average price over twelve months to identify long-term trends.

Bitcoin’s Recent Price Movement

Bitcoin started 2025 trading around $93,000, according to data from CoinGecko. The cryptocurrency reached its peak at $126,080 in October before declining, ultimately finishing the year below its opening price. Currently, Bitcoin trades near $88,543.

This bearish outlook contradicts numerous analyst predictions that forecasted 2026 as a growth year for the cryptocurrency.

Potential Bottom in the $56,000-$60,000 Range

Based on Bitcoin’s realized price and historical performance patterns, Moreno projects the bear market bottom could land between $56,000 and $60,000 over the coming year.

The realized price represents the average acquisition cost across all Bitcoin holders. Moreno explains that during bull markets, Bitcoin’s price typically deviates significantly above this realized price, while bear markets tend to see prices retreat back toward this baseline metric.

A More Moderate Drawdown

If Bitcoin drops to the $56,000 level, it would represent approximately a 55% decline from its all-time high. While substantial, Moreno frames this as potentially positive news when compared to previous bear cycles.

“From the all-time high, the drawdown is really not as high as we have had in previous bear markets when we have had drawdowns of 70%, 80%,” Moreno noted, suggesting this cycle may prove less severe than its predecessors.

Structural Differences From 2022

This potential bear market appears more stable than the 2022 downturn, which was marked by several high-profile collapses. The Terra ecosystem failed in May 2022, followed by Celsius Network in June and FTX in November—events that sent shockwaves throughout the entire cryptocurrency sector.

Moreno highlights several factors that could provide support during this cycle:

• No major crypto-related institutional failures have occurred
• Large institutional players continue accumulating cryptocurrency regularly
• A broader base of traders and investors stands ready to enter the market
• The sector now features more established and reliable companies and projects

“There are other types of players now that buy more periodically,” Moreno explained. “Structurally, we now have more institutional or ETFs that don’t sell, and also there’s some buying there.”

Looking Ahead

While the prospect of a bear market challenges many optimistic predictions for 2026, the structural improvements in the cryptocurrency market may help cushion potential downside and accelerate any eventual recovery.

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This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk.